Le Tour

So here we are, effectively the final stage of the tour. I won't lie I have the tour live streaming on another browser tab and will be flicking across to it as I type this.

I haven't written much about the tour this year like I have in previous years. I guess with all the crashes etc it has been a bit of a quiet tour, plenty of favourites have dropped out, however, as we have reached the final week things have started to look more interesting. The whole, will Thomas hold on, will Sky switch leaders, can Dumoulin pull something out has started to bring some interest to the race. As the week has progressed we have been getting answers to those questions, until, here we are tonight, 94km away from getting the final answers.

Obviously there is still the TT to come and that stage may end up being very critical, but it will really only come into play if Dumoulin can do something tonight. Currently Thomas has nearly two minutes on Dumoulin and as good a Time Trialist as he is, he isn't going to gain two minutes on Thomas in that final stage. If Thomas can get to the end of this stage with his lead intact then he will be finishing in yellow on the Champs-Elysees. Simple as that. It comes down to tonight.

At the moment the stage is unfolding more or less as expected with the GC pack all stuck together, Thomas, Froome and Dumoulin are all in one group. There is a pretty solid chance that the group will stay like that to the line. Dumoulin is obviously after time, so he will have to try something, but he will be very tired and also very closely watched by Sky (who know he must try something). All this will make actually getting a gap difficult. Who know what will come as we get to the final parts of the stage, but it will be tough for Dumoulin to make a break that is for sure.

If Dumoulin does get away he still needs Thomas to really fall apart. 5 or 10 seconds isn't going to cut it here, Dumoulin need to gain at least a minute on Thomas, 90 seconds would be better. I read something during the week saying that they would expect Dumoulin make up 30 or 40 seconds on Thomas in the TT, but that isn't going to cut it for this tour, he is going to need more. Based on what we have seen over the past three weeks Dumoulin isn't going to gain a minute on Thomas without Thomas also falling in a very deep hole (or crashing).

Of course, heading into this final week a lot has been made of the fact that Thomas usually has a bad day. Some predictions I read early this week didn't even include Thomas in the equation so strong was the assumption that he would pop at some point in the final week, they had it down to Froome and Dumoulin. Of course Thomas has history of popping in Grand Tours and he wouldn't be the first rider to fall at the final hurdle, Yates did it in the Giro and Cadel did it years ago at his first Giro. However, there hasn't really been any sign of Thomas faltering in the tour this year. Of course it isn't over until it is over, but so far he is looking good.

I am keen for Dumoulin to find something, if for no other reason that it would make the tour interesting and be a break for our regularly schedule program of Sky dominance. However, if Dumoulin can't get up and Thomas take the win I also won't be too bothered. Thomas seems like a nice guy, with a bit more of a likeable personality than Froome and Wiggins. Thomas has also done the time, being a faithful Lieutenant for Froome for years. If Thomas can make it to Paris is yellow it will be very well earned.

80km to go and then we will know.