Weather gods

As race day approaches there is one thing that triathletes love to obsess over, talk about and constantly scour the internet about. That thing is the weather. 

Athletes know deep down that obsessing over the weather is a fairly fruitless exercise, as worrying about it cannot change the weather. No matter how much people may want the weather to change, the truth is that they will be out there on race day, no matter what it throws at them, just like everybody else.

I raise this topic now because I just happened to look at the forecast for the Busselton 70.3 Half Ironman on Sunday. Now I don't usually put much credit in weather forecasts this far out. The race is still 5 days away and the forecast can completely change in that time. However, at the moment the forecast is not looking all that much fun. 14 to 23 degrees, a 50% chance for a little bit of rain and quite strong Westerly winds. Not that much fun at all.

As I have said, chances are that this forecast won't eventuate, however, what does could it mean if it does?

Well the temperature and the chance of rain are nothing much to worry about, those are pretty normal for this time of year. Busselton is typically cold during May, in fact the forecast temperature is a little warmer than usual. If it is wet and cold then competitors need to be aware of it and be prepared to dress accordingly. Putting on some extra clothes may take a little bit more time in transition, but it can pay dividends on the bike course if it prevents people getting too cold. If I am honest though I don't think the forecast conditions will necessitate different clothes, currently it doesn't look like it will be quite that cold or wet. Can't help to be prepared though.

If I was racing what could concern me more would be the forecast winds. Geographe Bay is quite protected and so normally it is very flat. However, at the moment the forecast is for winds to be coming from the North, which would be directly onshore at Busselton and could make the swim quite choppy. In the end the swim leg won't be run if it is dangerous, but if it is safe enough to swim then it could be pretty uncomfortable for people, particularly if they are not used to rough conditions.

When it comes to swimming in rough conditions there are a few things people can do to prepare. They can:

• work to keep themselves calm and not panic, even if the swimming isn't very fun; 
• plan to swim with a slightly straighter arm recovery to get their hands above the chop; 
• search hard for some rhythm, as chop can make that hard to find;
• be prepared to breath to only one side so they aren't breathing into the chop, which will also make breathing rhythm a bit easier; and
• as Dory would say, just keep swimming.

The other area where the wind would concern me is on the bike. Sections of the Busselton bike course can really be quite wind effected. Not enough to impact bike stability in my experience, but certainly enough to impact pacing. With a strong Westerly wind blowing (which is forecast) you end up fighting the wind to get back into town. This fight back into town can cause people to work much too hard on the return leg, spiking their power output and zapping their legs. People need to be aware enough to pull back on the effort into the wind to prevent themselves from redlining, even if it means going a bit slower. On the flip side people also need to keep their heads and keep pushing with the tail wind, even though they will be going super quick. When it comes to a 70.3 bike leg the ideal result is a completely flat power output, this isn't impossible on a windy day at Busselton, but it is harder. Keeping the power output even in both head winds and tail winds take awareness and control. 

When it comes to the run the weather is less of an issue, if it is cold and wet then that can be quite nice on the run. For me the wind would once again by my main concern. Like the bike course, wind on the run can lead people to overextend as they run into the wind, particularly if they are chasing a certain pace. People need to be aware that the wind will most likely slow them down and be prepared to run a bit slower into the wind and a bit quicker with the wind in order to keep their intensity at the right levels. I find this effect is usually less pronounced on the run (since you are going slower), but if it is very, very windy then it will become a consideration.

In the end the forecast may completely change between now and race day and so I wouldn't be losing any sleep over it, however, this won't stop lots of athletes obsessing over it. Watching the weather won't change it, but at least it means people can prepare for what might be coming.